BayesBlend Forecast SAMPLE REPORT
by Pryor Analytics • For: Castle Cafe • Wed 17 Jun to Tue 30 Jun 2026
NoteKey days

  • 🔥 Busiest day: Sat 20 Jun
    (median ≈ 353, lift ≈ +211)

  • ❄️ Quietest day: Mon 29 Jun
    (median ≈ 34, lift ≈ -37)

TipNext fortnight at a glance

  • 🟥 5 unusually busy days → plan +1 staff on the busiest flagged days
    (Thu 18 Jun, Fri 19 Jun, Sat 20 Jun, Fri 26 Jun, Sat 27 Jun)

  • 🟦 4 unusually quiet days → reduce prep ~25% on quiet flagged days
    (Mon 22 Jun, Tue 23 Jun, Sun 28 Jun, Mon 29 Jun)

  • 📈 Peak uplift: Sat 20 Jun (lift vs baseline ≈ +211)

Expected Demand

i.e. transactions, customers, items sold

Expected Menu Demand (by category)

NoteHow to read this heat map

This heat map shows the model’s expected demand by 2-hour block over the next 3 days.

Each tile gives the expected number of orders in that block. Darker tiles indicate busier periods.

These block-level values are scaled so that, within each day, they sum to the model’s daily expected demand forecast.

TipInsights and Recommended actions

  • Busiest day: Fri 19 Jun (expected daily demand ≈ 249)

  • Top demand blocks:

    • Fri 19 Jun • 10-12 (77)
    • Fri 19 Jun • 12-14 (60)
    • Fri 19 Jun • 08-10 (42)

  • Quietest blocks:

    • Wed 17 Jun • 16-18 (12)
    • Wed 17 Jun • 14-16 (16)
  • Suggested actions:
    • Add cover or overlap during the busiest blocks
    • Front-load prep before the busiest morning or midday periods
    • Use quieter blocks for breaks, lighter staffing, or batch prep
TipStaffing actions
Next 2 weeks: shows days with ≥ 70% chance of being unusually busy/quiet and ≥ 25% change vs baseline.
Add cover
🟥Sat 20 JunSat• Add +2 staff or extended overlap
353 vs 143
P(busy)=100% • lift=+211 (148% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟥Fri 19 JunFri• Add +2 staff or extended overlap
245 vs 110
P(busy)=100% • lift=+135 (124% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟥Sat 27 JunSat• Add +2 staff or extended overlap
327 vs 143
P(busy)=99% • lift=+184 (129% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟥Fri 26 JunFri• Add +2 staff or extended overlap
201 vs 110
P(busy)=96% • lift=+92 (84% of baseline) • conf: Low
Run lean / schedule breaks
🟦Tue 23 JunTue• Reduce cover / schedule breaks
36 vs 90
P(quiet)=100% • lift=-53 (60% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟦Mon 29 JunMon• Reduce cover / schedule breaks
34 vs 70
P(quiet)=96% • lift=-37 (52% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟦Sun 28 JunSun• Run lean / shorten overlap
42 vs 68
P(quiet)=83% • lift=-26 (39% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟦Mon 22 JunMon• Run lean / shorten overlap
49 vs 70
P(quiet)=77% • lift=-22 (31% of baseline) • conf: Medium
TipFood prep actions (Pastries & Sandwiches)
Next 7 days: shows categories with ≥ 70% chance of being unusually busy/quiet and ≥ 30% change vs baseline.
Prep more
🟥SandwichesSat 20 Jun• Prep extra bread + fillings
271 vs 97
P(busy)=100% • lift=+174 (179% of baseline)
🟥SandwichesFri 19 Jun• Prep extra bread + fillings
230 vs 89
P(busy)=100% • lift=+141 (158% of baseline)
🟥PastriesSat 20 Jun• Bake/defrost extra trays
207 vs 93
P(busy)=98% • lift=+114 (123% of baseline)
🟥PastriesFri 19 Jun• Bake/defrost extra trays
118 vs 60
P(busy)=96% • lift=+58 (97% of baseline)
🟥SandwichesThu 18 Jun• Prep extra bread + fillings
125 vs 89
P(busy)=83% • lift=+36 (40% of baseline)
Prep less
🟦SandwichesTue 23 Jun• Prep less; keep ingredients chilled
6 vs 82
P(quiet)=100% • lift=-76 (93% of baseline)
🟦PastriesTue 23 Jun• Reduce bake size / delay bake
17 vs 41
P(quiet)=99% • lift=-24 (59% of baseline)
🟦SandwichesMon 22 Jun• Prep less; keep ingredients chilled
38 vs 66
P(quiet)=97% • lift=-28 (42% of baseline)
TipDrinks & barista prep actions
Next 7 days: shows drinks with ≥ 70% chance of being unusually busy/quiet and ≥ 30% change vs baseline.
Barista prep / stock up
🟥Cold drinksSat 20 Jun• Stock ice/cups • chill bottles
399 vs 167
P(busy)=100% • lift=+232 (139% of baseline)
🟥Hot drinksSat 20 Jun• Extra milk/beans • add barista cover
599 vs 361
P(busy)=100% • lift=+238 (66% of baseline)
🟥Cold drinksFri 19 Jun• Stock ice/cups • chill bottles
247 vs 113
P(busy)=100% • lift=+134 (119% of baseline)
🟥Hot drinksFri 19 Jun• Extra milk/beans • add barista cover
448 vs 295
P(busy)=98% • lift=+153 (52% of baseline)
🟥Cold drinksThu 18 Jun• Stock ice/cups • chill bottles
142 vs 102
P(busy)=74% • lift=+40 (39% of baseline)
Run lean / reduce bar cover
🟦Cold drinksTue 23 Jun• Hold back fridge stock • fewer cups/ice
5 vs 74
P(quiet)=100% • lift=-69 (93% of baseline)
🟦Cold drinksMon 22 Jun• Hold back fridge stock • fewer cups/ice
31 vs 54
P(quiet)=94% • lift=-23 (43% of baseline)
TipDemand at a glance
Next 2 weeks only: shows days with ≥ 70% chance of being unusually busy/quiet and a big change (≥ 25%) above/below the usual baseline.
Busier than usual
🟥Sat 20 JunSat
353 vs 143
P(busy)=100% • lift=+211 (148% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟥Fri 19 JunFri
245 vs 110
P(busy)=100% • lift=+135 (124% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟥Sat 27 JunSat
327 vs 143
P(busy)=99% • lift=+184 (129% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟥Fri 26 JunFri
201 vs 110
P(busy)=96% • lift=+92 (84% of baseline) • conf: Low
Quieter than usual
🟦Tue 23 JunTue
36 vs 90
P(quiet)=100% • lift=-53 (60% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟦Mon 29 JunMon
34 vs 70
P(quiet)=96% • lift=-37 (52% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟦Sun 28 JunSun
42 vs 68
P(quiet)=83% • lift=-26 (39% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟦Mon 22 JunMon
49 vs 70
P(quiet)=77% • lift=-22 (31% of baseline) • conf: Medium

Flagged Days (full table)

Date Signal Forecast (median) 80% range (p10–p90) Baseline (weekday) Lift vs baseline P(busy) P(quiet) Confidence
Sat 20 Jun Unusually busy 353 278–453 143 211 100% 0% Medium
Fri 19 Jun Unusually busy 245 198–302 110 135 100% 0% Medium
Tue 23 Jun Unusually quiet 36 28–48 90 -53 0% 100% Medium
Sat 27 Jun Unusually busy 327 232–466 143 184 99% 0% Low
Fri 26 Jun Unusually busy 201 147–281 110 92 96% 0% Low
Mon 29 Jun Unusually quiet 34 24–49 70 -37 0% 96% Low
Sun 28 Jun Unusually quiet 42 30–61 68 -26 1% 83% Low
Mon 22 Jun Unusually quiet 49 38–65 70 -22 1% 77% Medium
Thu 18 Jun Unusually busy 134 113–161 104 29 68% 0% Medium
TipMenu demand at a glance
Showing the next 7 days where demand is very likely (≥ 70%) to be unusually high/low and the expected change is big (≥ 30% vs the usual baseline).
Spikes
🟥SandwichesSat 20 Jun
271 vs 97
P(busy)=100% • lift=+174 (179% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟥SandwichesFri 19 Jun
230 vs 89
P(busy)=100% • lift=+141 (158% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟥Cold drinksSat 20 Jun
399 vs 167
P(busy)=100% • lift=+232 (139% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟥Hot drinksSat 20 Jun
599 vs 361
P(busy)=100% • lift=+238 (66% of baseline) • conf: High
🟥Cold drinksFri 19 Jun
247 vs 113
P(busy)=100% • lift=+134 (119% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟥Hot drinksFri 19 Jun
448 vs 295
P(busy)=98% • lift=+153 (52% of baseline) • conf: High
🟥PastriesSat 20 Jun
207 vs 93
P(busy)=98% • lift=+114 (123% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟥PastriesFri 19 Jun
118 vs 60
P(busy)=96% • lift=+58 (97% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟥SandwichesThu 18 Jun
125 vs 89
P(busy)=83% • lift=+36 (40% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟥Cold drinksThu 18 Jun
142 vs 102
P(busy)=74% • lift=+40 (39% of baseline) • conf: Medium
Dips
🟦Cold drinksTue 23 Jun
5 vs 74
P(quiet)=100% • lift=-69 (93% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟦SandwichesTue 23 Jun
6 vs 82
P(quiet)=100% • lift=-76 (93% of baseline) • conf: High
🟦PastriesTue 23 Jun
17 vs 41
P(quiet)=99% • lift=-24 (59% of baseline) • conf: Low
🟦SandwichesMon 22 Jun
38 vs 66
P(quiet)=97% • lift=-28 (42% of baseline) • conf: Medium
🟦Cold drinksMon 22 Jun
31 vs 54
P(quiet)=94% • lift=-23 (43% of baseline) • conf: Medium

🌡 Temperature Impact

  • 1°C increase → 5.9% increase in demand
    (95% CI: 4.5% – 7.6%)

  • 5°C increase → 33.5% increase in demand
    (95% CI: 24.4% – 44.1%)

☀ Sunshine Impact

  • 10% increase → 17.3% increase in demand
    (95% CI: 15.4% – 19.6%)
NoteOverall trend

  • Strong evidence underlying demand ended lower than at the start of the sample

  • Estimated change from first week to last week: -7.9%
    (median: -7.1%; 95% credible interval: -17.9% to +1.5%)

  • Probability underlying demand is higher than in the first week: 4%

TipRecent momentum

  • Strong evidence underlying demand was higher than the previous week

  • Estimated change from previous week to last week: +4.9%
    (median: +5%; 95% credible interval: -6.2% to +16%)

  • Probability underlying demand is higher than last week: 83%

This chart shows underlying demand over time, after adjusting for weekday pattern and weather.

The black line is the estimated demand index, and the shaded band shows the 95% credible interval.

The index is centred at 100, which represents the sample-average underlying demand level. Values above 100 indicate stronger-than-average underlying demand; values below 100 indicate weaker-than-average underlying demand.

At the end of the sample, underlying demand is estimated to be below average.

Date Weekday Signal Baseline p50 p10 p90 Lift P_busy P_quiet Confidence DirConf
Wed 17 Jun Wed Normal 90 87 75 102 -3 4.1% 3.9% High Low
Thu 18 Jun Thu Unusually busy 104 134 113 161 29 67.8% 0.0% Medium Medium
Fri 19 Jun Fri Unusually busy 110 245 198 302 135 100.0% 0.0% Medium High
Sat 20 Jun Sat Unusually busy 143 353 278 453 211 100.0% 0.0% Medium High
Sun 21 Jun Sun Normal 68 73 58 95 5 29.2% 5.8% Medium Low
Mon 22 Jun Mon Unusually quiet 70 49 38 65 -22 0.9% 76.8% Medium Medium
Tue 23 Jun Tue Unusually quiet 90 36 28 48 -53 0.0% 99.7% Medium High
Wed 24 Jun Wed Normal 90 73 56 99 -17 5.6% 46.3% Medium Low
Thu 25 Jun Thu Normal 104 111 82 151 6 29.4% 11.5% Low Low
Fri 26 Jun Fri Unusually busy 110 201 147 281 92 95.7% 0.0% Low High
Sat 27 Jun Sat Unusually busy 143 327 232 466 184 99.1% 0.0% Low High
Sun 28 Jun Sun Unusually quiet 68 42 30 61 -26 1.2% 82.7% Low High
Mon 29 Jun Mon Unusually quiet 70 34 24 49 -37 0.3% 95.5% Low High
Tue 30 Jun Tue Normal 90 69 47 102 -21 6.5% 56.5% Low Low
NoteForecast table and demand cards

  • Signal
    Classification for the day:

    • Unusually busy = demand is likely above the usual level
    • Normal = no strong signal either way
    • Unusually quiet = demand is likely below the usual level

  • Forecast (median)
    The central expected demand.

  • 80% range (p10–p90)
    The model’s main forecast range. Demand is expected to fall inside this range about 80% of the time.

  • Baseline (weekday)
    The usual expected demand for that weekday.

  • Lift vs baseline
    Forecast median minus weekday baseline.
    Positive = above usual. Negative = below usual.

  • P(busy)
    Probability demand is unusually high relative to baseline.

  • P(quiet)
    Probability demand is unusually low relative to baseline.

  • Confidence
    A simple label based on how wide the forecast range is relative to the median:

    • High = interval width is less than 35% of the median
    • Medium = interval width is less than 60% of the median
    • Low = interval width is 60% or more of the median

  • conf
    Short form of Confidence used in the cards.

NoteMenu table and menu cards

  • Category
    Menu group being forecast, such as Hot drinks or Pastries.

  • Forecast (median)
    The central expected demand for that category.

  • 80% range (p10–p90)
    The main forecast range for that category.

  • Baseline (weekday)
    The usual expected demand for that category on that weekday.

  • Lift vs baseline
    Category forecast median minus category baseline.

  • P(busy)
    Probability that category demand is unusually high.

  • P(quiet)
    Probability that category demand is unusually low.

  • Confidence
    Same idea as above, but applied to the category forecast:

    • High = interval width is less than 35% of the median
    • Medium = interval width is less than 60% of the median
    • Low = interval width is 60% or more of the median