BayesBlend Forecast SAMPLE REPORT
by Pryor Analytics • For: Castle Cafe • Thu 01 Jan to Wed 14 Jan 2026
NoteKey days

  • 🔥 Busiest day: Fri 09 Jan
    (forecast ≈ 159, difference vs usual ≈ +49)

  • ❄️ Quietest day: Tue 06 Jan
    (forecast ≈ 47, difference vs usual ≈ -43)

TipNext fortnight at a glance

  • 🟥 4 unusually busy days → plan +1 staff on the busiest flagged days
    (Fri 02 Jan, Sun 04 Jan, Fri 09 Jan, Sun 11 Jan)

  • 🟦 3 unusually quiet days → reduce prep ~25% on quiet flagged days
    (Thu 01 Jan, Sat 03 Jan, Tue 06 Jan)

  • 📈 Largest increase vs usual: Fri 09 Jan (≈ +49 demand)

Expected Demand

i.e. transactions, customers, items sold

Expected Menu Demand (by category)

NoteHow to read this heat map

This heat map shows the model’s expected demand by 2-hour block over the next 3 days.

Each tile gives the expected number of orders in that block. Darker tiles indicate busier periods.

These block-level values are scaled so that, within each day, they sum to the model’s daily expected demand forecast.

TipInsights and Recommended actions

  • Busiest day: Fri 02 Jan (expected daily demand ≈ 143)

  • Top demand blocks:

    • Fri 02 Jan • 12-14 (43)
    • Fri 02 Jan • 10-12 (33)
    • Sat 03 Jan • 12-14 (33)

  • Quietest blocks:

    • Thu 01 Jan • 16-18 (10)
    • Thu 01 Jan • 08-10 (12)
  • Suggested actions:
    • Add cover or overlap shifts during the busiest blocks
    • Increase prep ahead of the busiest morning or midday periods
    • Use quieter blocks for breaks, lighter staffing, or prep for next day
TipStaffing actions
Next 2 weeks: shows days with ≥ 70% chance of being unusually busy/quiet and ≥ 25% change vs baseline.
Add cover
🟥Sun 04 JanSun
Suggested actionAdd +1 staff (2–3h overlap)
Forecast demand99
Usual demand68
Probability busier than usual92%
Difference from usual+31 (+46%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟥Sun 11 JanSun
Suggested actionAdd +2 staff or extended overlap
Forecast demand114
Usual demand68
Probability busier than usual89%
Difference from usual+46 (+68%)
ConfidenceLow
🟥Fri 02 JanFri
Suggested actionAdd +1 staff (1–2h overlap)
Forecast demand143
Usual demand110
Probability busier than usual79%
Difference from usual+33 (+30%)
ConfidenceHigh
🟥Fri 09 JanFri
Suggested actionAdd +1 staff (2–3h overlap)
Forecast demand159
Usual demand110
Probability busier than usual79%
Difference from usual+49 (+45%)
ConfidenceLow
Run lean / schedule breaks
🟦Tue 06 JanTue
Suggested actionReduce cover / schedule breaks
Forecast demand47
Usual demand90
Probability quieter than usual98%
Difference from usual-43 (-48%)
ConfidenceMedium
TipFood prep actions (Pastries, Sandwiches & Hot Food)
Next 7 days: shows categories with ≥ 70% chance of being unusually busy/quiet and ≥ 30% change from usual demand.
Prep more
🟥SandwichesSun 04 Jan
Suggested actionPrep extra bread + fillings
Forecast category demand62
Usual category demand38
Probability busier than usual95%
Difference from usual+24 (+63%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟥SandwichesFri 02 Jan
Suggested actionPrep extra bread + fillings
Forecast category demand105
Usual category demand79
Probability busier than usual72%
Difference from usual+26 (+33%)
ConfidenceMedium
Prep less
🟦SandwichesTue 06 Jan
Suggested actionPrep less; keep ingredients chilled
Forecast category demand22
Usual category demand72
Probability quieter than usual100%
Difference from usual-50 (-69%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟦PastriesTue 06 Jan
Suggested actionReduce bake size / delay bake
Forecast category demand21
Usual category demand41
Probability quieter than usual93%
Difference from usual-20 (-49%)
ConfidenceLow
🟦SandwichesSat 03 Jan
Suggested actionPrep less; keep ingredients chilled
Forecast category demand54
Usual category demand86
Probability quieter than usual93%
Difference from usual-32 (-37%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟦Hot FoodTue 06 Jan
Suggested actionReduce hot-food prep and cook in smaller batches
Forecast category demand43
Usual category demand70
Probability quieter than usual80%
Difference from usual-27 (-39%)
ConfidenceLow
TipDrinks & barista prep actions
Next 7 days: shows drinks with ≥ 70% chance of being unusually busy/quiet and ≥ 30% change from usual demand.
Barista prep / stock up
🟥Cold drinksSun 04 Jan
Suggested actionStock ice/cups • chill bottles
Forecast category demand101
Usual category demand65
Probability busier than usual84%
Difference from usual+36 (+55%)
ConfidenceMedium
Run lean / reduce bar cover
🟦Cold drinksTue 06 Jan
Suggested actionHold back fridge stock • fewer cups/ice
Forecast category demand23
Usual category demand66
Probability quieter than usual100%
Difference from usual-43 (-65%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟦Cold drinksSat 03 Jan
Suggested actionHold back fridge stock • fewer cups/ice
Forecast category demand94
Usual category demand148
Probability quieter than usual82%
Difference from usual-54 (-36%)
ConfidenceLow
🟦Hot drinksTue 06 Jan
Suggested actionShorter barista overlap • prep less milk
Forecast category demand98
Usual category demand198
Probability quieter than usual81%
Difference from usual-100 (-51%)
ConfidenceLow
TipDemand at a glance
Next 2 weeks only: shows days with ≥ 70% chance of being unusually busy/quiet and a big change (≥ 25%) above/below usual demand.
Busier than usual
🟥Sun 04 JanSun
Forecast demand99
Usual demand68
Probability busier than usual92%
Difference from usual+31 (+46%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟥Sun 11 JanSun
Forecast demand114
Usual demand68
Probability busier than usual89%
Difference from usual+46 (+68%)
ConfidenceLow
🟥Fri 02 JanFri
Forecast demand143
Usual demand110
Probability busier than usual79%
Difference from usual+33 (+30%)
ConfidenceHigh
🟥Fri 09 JanFri
Forecast demand159
Usual demand110
Probability busier than usual79%
Difference from usual+49 (+45%)
ConfidenceLow
Quieter than usual
🟦Tue 06 JanTue
Forecast demand47
Usual demand90
Probability quieter than usual98%
Difference from usual-43 (-48%)
ConfidenceMedium

Flagged Days (full table)

Date Signal Forecast demand Likely range (80%) Usual weekday demand Difference from usual Probability busier than usual Probability quieter than usual Confidence
Tue 06 Jan Unusually quiet 47 37–60 90 -43 0% 98% Medium
Sun 04 Jan Unusually busy 99 83–121 68 31 92% 0% Medium
Sun 11 Jan Unusually busy 114 80–169 68 46 89% 1% Low
Fri 02 Jan Unusually busy 143 126–163 110 33 79% 0% High
Fri 09 Jan Unusually busy 159 117–219 110 49 79% 1% Low
Sat 03 Jan Unusually quiet 109 92–128 143 -34 0% 65% High
Thu 01 Jan Unusually quiet 81 72–90 104 -23 0% 65% High
TipMenu demand at a glance
Showing the next 7 days where demand is very likely (≥ 70%) to be unusually high/low and the expected change is big (≥ 30% from usual category demand).
Spikes
🟥SandwichesSun 04 Jan
Forecast category demand62
Usual category demand38
Probability busier than usual95%
Difference from usual+24 (+63%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟥Cold drinksSun 04 Jan
Forecast category demand101
Usual category demand65
Probability busier than usual84%
Difference from usual+36 (+55%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟥SandwichesFri 02 Jan
Forecast category demand105
Usual category demand79
Probability busier than usual72%
Difference from usual+26 (+33%)
ConfidenceMedium
Dips
🟦SandwichesTue 06 Jan
Forecast category demand22
Usual category demand72
Probability quieter than usual100%
Difference from usual-50 (-69%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟦Cold drinksTue 06 Jan
Forecast category demand23
Usual category demand66
Probability quieter than usual100%
Difference from usual-43 (-65%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟦PastriesTue 06 Jan
Forecast category demand21
Usual category demand41
Probability quieter than usual93%
Difference from usual-20 (-49%)
ConfidenceLow
🟦SandwichesSat 03 Jan
Forecast category demand54
Usual category demand86
Probability quieter than usual93%
Difference from usual-32 (-37%)
ConfidenceMedium
🟦Cold drinksSat 03 Jan
Forecast category demand94
Usual category demand148
Probability quieter than usual82%
Difference from usual-54 (-36%)
ConfidenceLow
🟦Hot drinksTue 06 Jan
Forecast category demand98
Usual category demand198
Probability quieter than usual81%
Difference from usual-100 (-51%)
ConfidenceLow
🟦Hot FoodTue 06 Jan
Forecast category demand43
Usual category demand70
Probability quieter than usual80%
Difference from usual-27 (-39%)
ConfidenceLow

🌡 Temperature Impact

  • 1°C increase → 6.3% increase in demand
    (95% CI: 4.8% – 7.8%)

  • 5°C increase → 35.8% increase in demand
    (95% CI: 26.6% – 45.5%)

☀ Sunshine Impact

  • 10 percentage point increase → 16.8% increase in demand
    (95% CI: 15% – 18.6%)

🌧 Rainfall Impact

  • 1 mm increase → 4.5% decrease in demand
    (95% CI: -6% – -3%)

  • 5 mm increase → 20.5% decrease in demand
    (95% CI: -26.5% – -14.1%)

NoteOverall trend

  • Strong evidence underlying demand ended lower than at the start of the sample

  • Estimated change from first week to last week: -7.8%
    (median: -8%; 95% credible interval: -17.8% to +3.3%)

  • Probability underlying demand is higher than in the first week: 7%

TipRecent momentum

  • Strong evidence underlying demand was higher than the previous week

  • Estimated change from previous week to last week: +7.4%
    (median: +7.3%; 95% credible interval: -2.6% to +18.3%)

  • Probability underlying demand is higher than last week: 93%

This chart shows underlying demand over time, after adjusting for weekday pattern and weather.

The black line is the estimated demand index, and the shaded band shows the 95% credible interval.

The index is centred at 100, which represents the sample-average underlying demand level. Values above 100 indicate stronger-than-average underlying demand; values below 100 indicate weaker-than-average underlying demand.

At the end of the sample, underlying demand is estimated to be below average.

Date Weekday Signal Baseline p50 p10 p90 Lift P_busy P_quiet Confidence DirConf
Thu 01 Jan Thu Unusually quiet 104 81 72 90 -23 0.0% 64.6% High Medium
Fri 02 Jan Fri Unusually busy 110 143 126 163 33 79.4% 0.0% High Medium
Sat 03 Jan Sat Unusually quiet 143 109 92 128 -34 0.0% 65.3% High Medium
Sun 04 Jan Sun Unusually busy 68 99 83 121 31 91.5% 0.0% Medium High
Mon 05 Jan Mon Normal 70 71 57 87 0 14.1% 8.4% Medium Low
Tue 06 Jan Tue Unusually quiet 90 47 37 60 -43 0.0% 98.4% Medium High
Wed 07 Jan Wed Normal 90 107 83 141 17 49.0% 2.6% Medium Low
Thu 08 Jan Thu Normal 104 94 71 125 -11 10.0% 29.5% Medium Low
Fri 09 Jan Fri Unusually busy 110 159 117 219 49 79.2% 1.1% Low Medium
Sat 10 Jan Sat Normal 143 131 94 188 -12 17.1% 29.6% Low Low
Sun 11 Jan Sun Unusually busy 68 114 80 169 46 88.9% 0.9% Low High
Mon 12 Jan Mon Normal 70 54 37 81 -17 8.2% 55.5% Low Low
Tue 13 Jan Tue Normal 90 93 61 144 3 33.3% 20.8% Low Low
Wed 14 Jan Wed Normal 90 108 70 173 18 50.2% 11.5% Low Low
NoteForecast table and demand cards

  • Signal
    Classification for the day:

    • Unusually busy = demand is likely to be clearly above the usual level
    • Normal = no strong signal either way
    • Unusually quiet = demand is likely to be clearly below the usual level

  • Forecast demand
    The model’s central forecast for demand on that day.

  • Likely range (80%)
    The model’s main forecast range. Demand is expected to fall inside this range about 80% of the time.

  • Usual weekday demand
    The typical expected demand for that day of the week, used as the comparison point for the forecast.

  • Difference from usual
    The forecast minus usual demand. A positive value means demand is forecast above usual; a negative value means it is forecast below usual. The percentage in the cards shows the size of that difference relative to usual demand.

  • Probability busier than usual
    The model’s estimated probability that demand will be unusually high compared with the usual level.

  • Probability quieter than usual
    The model’s estimated probability that demand will be unusually low compared with the usual level.

  • Confidence
    A simple label based on how wide the forecast range is relative to the central forecast:

    • High = interval width is less than 35% of the central forecast
    • Medium = interval width is less than 60% of the central forecast
    • Low = interval width is 60% or more of the central forecast
NoteMenu table and menu cards

  • Category
    Menu group being forecast, such as Hot drinks, Pastries or Hot Food.

  • Forecast category demand
    The model’s central forecast for demand in that category.

  • Usual category demand
    The typical expected demand for that category on that day of the week.

  • Difference from usual
    The category forecast minus usual category demand. A positive value means category demand is forecast above usual; a negative value means it is forecast below usual.

  • Probability busier than usual
    The model’s estimated probability that demand for that category will be unusually high.

  • Probability quieter than usual
    The model’s estimated probability that demand for that category will be unusually low.

  • Confidence
    The same confidence measure as above, applied to the category forecast.